Future forecast of city temperature

The Institute for Environmental Science has conducted joint research with the National Research and Development Agency Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC).
In this page, we will introduce the results of "Future Forecast of City Temperature" in that approach.

What is the Heat Island phenomenon?　／　Heat Island countermeasures　／　Temperature Observation in the City　／　Heat Environment Survey　／　Future forecast of city temperature

Background
Since the Industrial Revolution in the middle of the 18th century, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have continued to increase due to human activities, and the average annual temperature around the world has been rising to this day compared to before the Industrial Revolution.
The future temperature rise due to such global warming will change depending on the status of measures to combat global warming in the future, and it is predicted that the degree of temperature rise will not be uniform throughout the world and there will be regional differences. I am.
Purpose
In order to take measures to address the effects of climate change in the event of global warming in the future, detailed information on temperature distribution based on local characteristics is required, so the future temperature forecast in Yokohama City was implemented.

The Institute for Environmental Science and JAMSTEC conducted joint research. For details, please refer to the following URL.
In this initiative, based on current and future numerical simulations of temperatures in Yokohama City, two cases of climate change that can occur in various ways (when the global average temperature rises by 2 ° C or 4 ° C compared to before the Industrial Revolution) We examined how much the current temperature in Yokohama City will rise.
This numerical simulation and analysis of the results were performed by JAMSTEC using the supercomputer "Earth Simulator", and detailed temperature distribution information in Yokohama City, which has been high resolution to 320m grid, was obtained.

Both the current and future temperatures and the amount of temperature rise from the present to the future differed from region to region in the city, and the regional differences were affected by sea breeze and green space.
In areas strongly affected by sea breezes and green spaces, the temperature in the future is less likely to be hot than in weak areas, and the temperature rise from now to the future is smaller.
Efforts to date ※It was found that "sea breeze has the effect of suppressing the rise in temperature during the day, and green spaces have the effect of reducing the temperature at night." However, as a result of this numerical simulation, even in the warm future, sea breeze and green spaces continue to be important.
※"Guide to creating an environment that overcomes heat using urban environmental climate maps"
For more information, please refer to the following URL.

This initiative was announced in a press release on July 29, 2022.