Future forecast of city temperature

The Institute of Environmental Science conducted joint research with the National Research and Development Agency Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC).
On this page, we will introduce the results of "Future prediction of city temperature" in that approach.

What is the heat island phenomenon?　／　Heat island countermeasures　／　City temperature observation　／　Thermal environment survey　／　Future forecast of city temperature

Background
Since the Industrial Revolution in the middle of the 18th century, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has continued to increase due to human activities, and the average annual temperature in the world has been rising to this day compared to before the Industrial Revolution.
The value of future temperature rise due to such global warming will change depending on the status of future global warming countermeasures, and the degree of temperature rise is predicted to be uniform and regional differences in the world. It has been.
Purpose
In order to tackle the impact of climate change in the event of global warming in the future, detailed temperature distribution information based on local characteristics is required. We carried out future prediction.

Research Institute for Environmental Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) conducted joint research. (For details, please refer to the following link.)
In this effort, based on current and future numerical simulations of temperatures in Yokohama, we examined how much the current temperature in Yokohama would rise in two of the possible cases of climate change (when the global average temperature rises by 2°C or 4°C compared to before the Industrial Revolution), we examined how much the current temperature in Yokohama would rise in Yokohama.
This numerical simulation and analysis of the results were obtained by JAMSTEC using the supercomputer "Earth Simulator" to obtain detailed temperature distribution information in Yokohama, which was high resolution up to 320 m lattice.

The current and future temperatures, and the amount of temperature rises from now to the future differ depending on the region in the city, and the regional differences were affected by sea breeze and green spaces.
In areas strongly influenced by sea breeze and green spaces, future temperatures are less likely to become hotter than in weak areas, and the amount of temperature increases from now to the future is smaller than in weak areas.
Initiatives to date ※The results of this numerical simulation show that sea breezes have the effect of suppressing the rise in temperature during the day, and green spaces have the effect of reducing nighttime temperatures.
※"Guide to Creating an environment that survives heat using urban environment climatic maps"
For more information, please refer to the overview of the research.

The press release of this initiative was announced on July 29, 2022.