Yokohama City Future Population Estimation

Based on 2020 as the base time, estimates were made for each year until 2070.

The cohort factor method estimates the future population by assuming future values for each cohort (group born in the same year or the same period) for births, deaths, transfers, and out-migration, which are the factors of population increase or decrease.
Furthermore, in this estimation, we set provisional values for future births and deaths (in cases with many births and fewer deaths) and low levels (in cases with few births and deaths) and made high-level estimates.

Outline of estimation method (Yokohama City) (PDF: 259KB)

• Yokohama's population peaked at 3,770,009 in 2021, and has continued to decline since then.
• In 50 years, it will decrease by about 20% to 3.01 million.
• The population aged 65 and over peaked in 2047, reaching 1.227 million, or about 35% of the population.

Population by gender, age, age 3, age 4 categories, age 5 years, age 5 years (Excel: 163KB)
Demographics of Yokohama City (birth, death, transference, transference) (Excel: 12KB)

(Unit: 1,000 people)

This is an estimate of the future trends of birth and death by setting provisional values for high and low levels.

Results of high-ranking and low estimation (by gender, age 3, age 5 years) (Excel: 131KB)

Based on 2020 as the base time, estimates were made for each year until 2070.

Cohort Factor Method
Outline of estimation method (administrative distinction) (PDF: 237KB)
※Estimates are only medium-term estimates

• While the population of the city as a whole continues to decline, the five wards (Tsurumi Ward, Kanagawa Ward, Nishi Ward, Naka Ward, Kohoku Ward) will exceed the population in 2020 as of 2070.
• Of the above five wards, the population will continue to grow in Nishi Ward during the period, while the other four wards will peak between 2040 and 1960, leading to a decline in population.　　

Population by gender, age, age 3, age 4 categories, age 4 categories, age 5 years by age group (Excel: 2,509KB)
Demographics (birth, death, transference, transference) by administrative district (Excel: 96KB)

Estimation was made every five years until 2070, with 2020 as the base time.

In this estimation, based on the results of the census, the future householder rate is set based on the past trends in the household head rate by gender, age 5 years, and family type, and multiplied by the estimated population. I did it.
Outline of method of estimating the number of households (Yokohama City / Administrative) (PDF: 242KB)

• The total number of households in the city will peak between 2030 and 2035 and will begin to decrease.
• By family type in the whole city, "single households" are the most common, followed by "households consisting of couples and children" and "couple-only households", but from 2055 to 1960, "couple-only households" were "couple and children" Households consisting of ".
• The percentage of "single households" in each administrative district will increase in 17 wards except Nishi Ward. In all wards, the proportion of “couple-only households” increases, and the percentage of “households consisting of couples and children” decreases.

Number of households by family type (Yokohama City and administrative divisions) (Excel: 29KB)
Number of households by gender, age 5 years old class, and family type (Yokohama City / Administrative) (Excel: 483KB)

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
Estimated Population in Japan - Reiwa 5 (2023) - (external site)
Estimated population by region in Japan - Reiwa 5 (2023) - (external site)

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