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Yokohama-shi future population prediction

Future population prediction of Yokohama-shi

1 period by estimate

 We did 2015 with time standard criterion and estimated each age until 2065.


2 methods by estimate

    The individuals born during the same period factor method

   (we will suppose value every group) which gave birth to birth, the death, transference, transference that are factor of the increase and decrease of population for in the individuals born during the same period (same year or the same period by the individuals born during the same period factor method in the future individually and estimate future population.)

 Furthermore, by this estimation, we set high rank (case that there is much birth, and there is little death) and temporary set price of low degree (case that there is little birth, and there is much death) about value in birth, the future of the death and estimated high rank low degree by estimate.

   Summary (Yokohama-shi) of method by estimate [PDFPortable Document Format (259KB)]
 
Summary of 3 results by estimate

   ●Peak of population of Yokohama-shi is 2019
   ●Population is approximately 3,730,000 people in peak
   ●Ratio (aging rate) that person 65 years or older occupies is 35.6% in 24.8%, 2,065 years at population peak hour (2019)

<<result by estimate >>
   For each year, three wards of age according to man and woman of Yokohama-shi for four wards of age population Excel format (234KB) according to age 5 years old rank 
   Population dynamics (birth, the death, transference, transference) Excel format (34KB) of Yokohama-shi 



[value of future population of Yokohama-shi by estimate]

(unit: 1,000)
 201520202025203020352040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065
Average estimation 3,725 3,733 3,710 3,665 3,602 3,524 3,437 3,346 3,249 3,139 3,020
High rank estimation 3,725 3,754 3,762 3,746 3,708 3,653 3,591 3,529 3,467 3,398 3,317
Low degree estimation 3,725 3,712 3,660 3,588 3,502 3,402 3,292 3,175 3,047 2,904 2,753
 


[population for three wards of future population prediction level age of Yokohama-shi]

[ratio for three wards of future population prediction level age of Yokohama-shi]



As a result of 4 high ranks low degree estimation by estimate

   About birth and future change of the death, it is result that set temporary set price of each high rank, low degree by estimate.

    As a result of high rank low degree estimation by estimate (men's and women's age three wards classification, age 5 years old rank distinction) Excel format (293KB)


Population of each ward


  1 period by estimate    
    
   We did 2015 with time standard criterion and estimated each age until 2065.


  2 methods by estimate      
       
   The individuals born during the same period factor method 

                Summary (distinction) Portable Document Format (235KB) of method by estimate


  Summary of 3 results by estimate

   
●As for Kohoku Ward, Nishi Ward, the Tsurumi Ward, increase of population will continue in future, peak of population is 2042 each in 2036 (in 2037 the same number), 2041
    ●In Minami Ward, Konan Ward, Asahi Ward, Kanazawa Ward, Sakae Ward, Izumi Ward, Seya Ward, (2015 through 2065), decrease of population continue during this period by estimate
    ●Kanagawa Ward, Naka Ward, Hodogaya Ward, Isogo Ward, Midori Ward, Aoba Ward, Tsuzuki Ward  , Totsuka Ward increase during ten around several years from several years in after 2015, and decrease of population begins afterwards
    ●Ward that ratio that population 65 years or older accounts for is high in as of 2015 Sakae Ward (29.3%), Asahi Ward (28.2%), Izumi Ward (27.0%). In 2,065 years Konan Ward (38.8%), Kanazawa Ward (38.7%), Asahi Ward (38.1%). Ward that ratio that 0-14-year-old population accounts for is high in as of 2015 Tsuzuki Ward   (17.0%), Aoba Ward (13.9%). In 2,065 years Tsurumi Ward (12.0%), Tsuzuki Ward   (11.9%), Seya Ward (11.4%)

   <<result by estimate >>
     For each year, three wards of age according to man and woman of distinction population Excel format (3,181KB) according to age 5 years old rank
     Population dynamics (birth, the death, transference, transference) Excel format (136KB) of distinction




The number of the households of Yokohama-shi, each ward

     
1 period by estimate


     We did 2015 with time standard criterion and estimated every five years until 2065.

2 methods by estimate

   
         The family nurturer rate method

   This estimation set future family nurturer rate from past tendency of family nurturer rate according to family type according to age 5 years old rank according to man and woman based on national census result and estimated taking advantage of estimated population. 


          Summary (Yokohama-shi, distinction) Portable Document Format (239KB) of method of the number of the households by estimate

Summary of 3 results by estimate

    ●The number of the households in the city will increase in future, and is 1,698,000 households in 2030; peak
    (we do not change at estimation and time of peak in 2012 (Heisei 24) in the last time)
    ●In "the independent household," in "the household only for couple," increase continues until 2045 in 2035, and, in "the household consisting of couple and children," decrease continues
    ●It is a lot, but, as for the number of the households according to family type, "household only for couple" exceeds "household consisting of couple and children" in order of "household only for couple" "household consisting of couple and children" "independent household" in 2050
    ●Ratios of "independent household" 65 years or older increase year by year, in 2065 in 19.3% of total number of households



   <<result by estimate >>
      Number of the households (Yokohama-shi, distinction) Excel format (56KB) according to family type
     Number of the households (Yokohama-shi, distinction) Excel format (1,051KB) according to family type according to age 5 years old rank according to man and woman of family nurturer   




[estimation of the number of the households according to family type of Yokohama-shi]
Household graph 1
[ratio of number of the households according to family type of Yokohama-shi]
Household graph 2

 


Related information

■As a result of 2012 (Heisei 24) estimation

■National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
 Future population - April, 2017 (Heisei 29) - in Japan by estimate by estimate
 Future population - March, 2018 (Heisei 30) - according to area of Japan by estimate by estimate
 Number of the Japanese households future estimation (national estimation) - January, 2018 (Heisei 30) - by estimate
 Number of the Japanese households future estimation (the metropolis and districts) - April, 2014 (Heisei 26) - by estimate
We update on making - April 2, 2018 on Policy Bureau policy section - December 1, 2017
Opinion, inquiry - ss-seisaku@city.yokohama.jp - telephone: 045-671-2028 - FAX: 045-663-4613
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